Weekly Forex Review – Week Commencing 18th September 2017
The week started with classic risk-on behaviour. Carney dampens the GBP rise when he speaks in Washington. Bank of Canada’s Lowe talks down the CAD.
Wednesday saw the Fed meet. Their commentary was seen as positive and the risk-on tone continued.
Thursday night/Friday morning saw a deterioration in risk tone as North Korea’s Kim called Trump a “dotard” and there were threats of an H-Bomb test in the Pacific.
On Friday, focus turned to UK PM May and her speech in Florence, which was seen as positive for the GBP.
Most equities were up on the week although the US indices were the exception. Gold continued to fall on risk sentiment. The USD rose over the week as did the GBP. JPY weakness continued over the week but was somewhat derailed by the North Korea rhetoric. The US 10 Year yield rose over the week.
Three trades closed. Trade 58 (Japan225 long) for a gain of 3.19%; Trade 60 (GBPJPY long) for a gain of 2.57%) and Trade 61 (FTSE250 long) for a gain of 0.55%. Trade 62 (Gold short) is live and with a healthy profit as of the time of writing. Month-to-date performance is +7.13% and year-to-date performance is 20.2%.
Weekly Forex Outlook – Week Commencing 25th September 2017
Over the weekend, there were Parliamentary elections in New Zealand and Germany. In both cases, the incumbents both won but with reduced majorities. It is reported that Japan PM Abe is considering a JPY 2 trillion economic package.
As of 0940 BST, risk-tone is unclear. Most equity indices are down slightly. EUR and NZD are suffering due to the respective election results. The JPY weakened overnight but is now flat.
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